·Multi-province initiated ethanol gasoline promotion traditional gasoline will be discontinued next year

The comprehensive promotion of ethanol gasoline kicked off.
Since the 15th National Development and Reform Commission and other 15 ministries and commissions issued the "Implementation Plan for Expanding Biofuel Ethanol Production and Promoting the Use of Ethanol Gasoline for Vehicles", Tianjin and Shandong Province have released the first implementation plan for the promotion of ethanol gasoline for vehicles. Traditional gasoline will be discontinued.
Among them, from October 1st, 2018, Tianjin City began to close the sale of ethanol gasoline for vehicles; before March 30, 2018, Shandong promoted the use of ethanol in eight cities. Previously, Henan Province had already closed the promotion of ethanol gasoline in the province, and many provinces in Hebei Province began to use ethanol gasoline.
Analysts said that in addition to Tianjin and Shandong, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding air pollution control key areas are expected to implement the first promotion of ethanol gasoline, opening the era of ethanol gasoline.
Traditional gasoline will be discontinued from next year
According to the requirements of the program, the key areas for air pollution prevention and control in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and surrounding areas began to be promoted in 2018, and full coverage was achieved in 2019. By 2020, the country will basically achieve full coverage of ethanol gasoline for vehicles.
After the above plans are released, the industry is waiting for the delivery of specific implementation documents. The "Securities Daily" reporter learned that recently, Shandong and Tianjin first came out with an implementation plan to promote the use of ethanol gasoline.
Tianjin Municipality's "Implementation Plan for Promoting the Use of Ethanol Gasoline for Vehicles in Tianjin" requires that the city begin to close the sale of ethanol gasoline for vehicles starting from October 1, 2018. In 2016, the total gasoline sales volume of Tianjin City was 2.5364 million tons. According to the calculation of 10% ethanol, the city needs about 250,000 tons of ethanol per year.
According to the plan, the steps to implement ethanol gasoline in Tianjin are divided into four stages: preparation stage (December 2017-20 March); facility construction and transformation stage (January 2018-2018), during which the vehicle is completed. Ethanol gasoline distribution center construction and gas station renovation and vehicle cleaning work, relevant departments in accordance with relevant regulations for acceptance; transition phase (September 2018); closed operation phase (from October 2018).
At the same time, Shandong Province announced the "Shandong Province Vehicle Ethanol Gasoline Promotion Program" requires that the eight cities of Jinan, Zaozhuang, Tai'an, Jining, Linyi, Dezhou, Liaocheng and Heze should further add on the basis of summing up experience and perfecting the implementation plan. Great efforts, in 2017, the promotion of the use of ethanol gasoline for vehicles. Before March 30, 2018, promote the use of ethanol in the first eight cities, carry out market inspections, focus on rectification actions, eliminate regulatory dead spots, consolidate the results of closure, and lay a good foundation for the promotion of the use of ethanol gasoline for vehicles in the province.
Among them, Qingdao, Zibo, Dongying, Yantai, Weifang, Weihai, Rizhao, Laiwu, Binzhou 9 cities (hereinafter referred to as Qingdao and other 9 cities) from January 1, 2020, joined the automotive ethanol gasoline promotion area, the province's administration All gas stations in the region that have closed sales and use ethanol gasoline for vehicles (except for military special needs, national and special reserve oils) will stop selling ordinary gasoline, and all kinds of gasoline sold will be sold to ethanol gasoline for vehicles. In 2020, the province's gasoline consumption is expected to be about 10.65 million tons, and the consumption of 9 cities such as Qingdao is about 6.5 million tons.
This means that from next year, traditional gasoline will be discontinued in many places such as Tianjin and Shandong.
Ding Xu, an analyst at Longzhong Petrochemical Network, told the "Securities Daily" reporter that Shandong and Tianjin recently proposed a plan to promote ethanol gasoline for vehicles, which may be directly related to Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding air pollution. One of the advantages of ethanol gasoline is that it is more environmentally friendly than conventional gasoline. In addition, it is also considered that there are several fuel ethanol production enterprises in Henan Tianguan, Anhui Fengyuan, Shandong Longli and Tianjin Tianguan under construction, and the supply of raw materials is guaranteed.
“In the key areas of air pollution prevention and control in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei, Henan Province has already closed the promotion of ethanol gasoline in the province. Six cities in Shijiazhuang, Handan, Xingtai, Baoding, Zhangzhou and Hengshui in Hebei Province also use ethanol gasoline.” Xu Lian, an analyst at Jinlian, also told the "Securities Daily" reporter that at present, Beijing and Shanxi Province have not yet released the promotion policy for ethanol gasoline. Under the requirements of national policies, the relevant policies of the key areas of air pollution prevention and control in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei and the surrounding areas will also be actively promoted, and the era of ethanol gasoline is really coming.
Ethanol gasoline still has a supply gap
It is worth noting that if the above-mentioned ethanol gasoline promotion plan is implemented as scheduled, there will be some pressure on production enterprises, distribution enterprises and retail terminals.
Both Shandong and Tianjin are expected to have a gasoline consumption of about 13 million tons per year by 2020, and require 1.3 million tons of fuel ethanol, which already accounts for 50% of China's current fuel ethanol production.
Ding Xu said that in order to promote ethanol gasoline in the country in 2020, there is still a gap of more than 8 million tons per year. It is essential to expand the production capacity of fuel ethanol, and the import policy may also change, such as reducing import tariffs on fuel ethanol, trade. Companies may also be able to seize opportunities.
A research report by Orient Securities also said that China's fuel ethanol market is huge. The “13th Five-Year Plan” of the Energy Bureau proposes that China's fuel ethanol production will reach 4 million tons by 2020, which is 54% higher than the current level. In the long run, it is estimated that the gasoline consumption rate is close to 9.4 million tons.
At the same time, for the production enterprises, most of the current Shandong refining has not yet obtained the ethanol gasoline blending qualification, that is, the production and sales of ethanol gasoline cannot be carried out, and at least the corresponding layout arrangement cannot be completed before April 2018. If the monitoring is strong, Shandong refining may temporarily lose market share in these promotion cities.
"But the refining enterprise's ethanol gasoline blending qualification will also be accelerated with the promotion requirements. Since September, at least two refinings have obtained this qualification recently. Ethanol gasoline related facilities, such as blending devices, distribution and dispatch facilities Gas station storage tanks, etc., also need to be modified to meet the special requirements of short storage and easy deterioration of ethanol gasoline storage and transportation. Although this operation is relatively simple, it takes time to fully implement it in a wide range." Ding Xu also pointed out that the major changes in the field of fuel oil for vehicles are coming. It has been piloted for more than ten years of ethanol gasoline. Whether this can really make a breakthrough is still to be observed.

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